Editor's Note: Dick Weiss, a member of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association Hall of Fame, has covered college sports in Philadelphia and New York for more than 40 years. He will be providing regular commentary for the American Athletic Conference during the 2013-14 season.
The University of Central Florida has taken an odyssey through college football the past 10 years, navigating its way through the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA before finally surfacing this season in the American Athletic Conference, which offered its champion one final opportunity for an automatic bid to a Bowl Championship Series game.
The 15th-ranked Knights, who defeated Ball State in the
Beef ‘O' Brady 's Bowl last year, quickly emerged from the shadows to capture the league championship with an 11-1 record and earn a bid to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against high-scoring Big 12 champion Baylor (11-1) Jan. 1 in in Glendale, Ariz.
Not many fans outside Orlando and the American Athletic Conference office are giving UCF much of a chance, with Vegas making the Bears a healthy a 17-point favorite and some analysts forecasting a repeat of the 2011 Fiesta Bowl, when Oklahoma defeated Big East representative UConn.
But it is never wise to discount a team with George O'Leary, who has been a conference Coach of the Year six times, including this season, and 6-4, 230-pound junior quarterback Blake Bortles, who was chosen the American Offensive Player of the Year by the coaches and has the potential to be a high NFL first-round pick.
Bortles, who has completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 3,280 yards and 22 touchdowns, is considered the either the best or second-best quarterback available in the draft by many scouts, along with Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville. Bortles had some huge, clutch moments this season, throwing a last-minute 52-yard touchdown pass against the wind to Breshad Perriman to give UCF the win against USF one of four fourth-quarter, come from behind victories for the Knights.
Bortles displayed a rare combination of poise, accuracy, size and athleticism, which dramatically raised his pro stock. With five NFL teams -- Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Oakland and Cleveland -- in need of a quarterback, he could be a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft. Bortles must make a decision by Jan. 15, when underclassmen are required to declare for the draft, but he will not make any announcement until after the Fiesta Bowl so he can avoid distractions heading into the biggest game in the program's relatively short history.
Bortles and his family have met with O'Leary to go over the process. He has filed paperwork with the NFL Draft Advisory Board to get an idea of where he may be selected.
"He understands that we have a big bowl game coming up, that that's where his attention needs to be," O'Leary said during a teleconference this week. "His parents thoroughly understand that also. I don't think the NFL will be a distraction at all, knowing Blake and the type of person he is, the way he addresses things, the way he handles himself. I was very pleased with the meeting. I don't think that will be a distraction at all with him."
The Fiesta Bowl is a high profile game that will be played in prime time following the Rose Bowl and be viewed by millions of fans who don't know anything about UCF and want to find out if the Knights are the real deal. UCF, which has already beaten both Penn State and last year's Big East co-champion and Sugar Bowl winner Louisville on the road, has a body of work they can present. They are only a three-point loss to SEC powerhouse South Carolina from finishing undefeated.
But despite all that and the fact this game has a history of upsets, including Boise State's 43-42 double-overtime victory against Oklahoma in 2007, the Knights still lack true believers.
The American’s worst nightmare would be for Baylor to win, 60-30, in a wild, uncontrollable shootout.
Given the way UCF is currently structured defensively, the Knights have a much better chance against the Bears than they would if they had been paired against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, facing an SEC team that has a power running game and arguably the best defensive personnel in the country.
The Knights should be able to score. They put 34 on Penn State and 38 against Louisville in road victories, displaying a highly efficient spread offense that should click in good weather in the desert. UCF has a franchise quarterback, three quality receivers, including JJ Worton and two all-conference running backs, including Storm Johnson, who rushed for 1,015 yards and 11 touchdowns on a pass-first team and has 29 receptions for 261 yards and three touchdowns. The Knights also have three all-conference offensive linemen who are adept at pass blocking.
UCF tends to play to the level of competition. It will be up to the Knights to limit what has become a disturbing number of turnovers and for defensive coordinator Jim Fleming to come up with some creative schemes to slow down the highest scoring team in the country. That means containing junior quarterback Bryce Petty, who is the catalyst for an offense that is averaging 53.3 points and 624.5 yards total offense; and slowing down running back Lance Seastunk, who could pound out yardage against his injury wracked defensive front.
The Knights have actually arrived a year ahead of schedule. They were picked to finish fourth in the preseason but found a way to go 8-0 in league play with seven wins decided by seven points or less. If Bortles stays in school, UCF will have 17 returning starters and could make history by poking a hole in the top 10.
But first things first.
If this newly configured conference wants to show America it should be taken more seriously nationally, it will be incumbent for the Knights to play well against the best team from one of the power conferences and not be overwhelmed on the big stage. College football is set to enter a brave new world next year with a lucrative national four-team playoff. The SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC have been lobbying for more flexibility in providing financial support to athletes again. They would like nothing better than to widen their competitive advantage against other conferences like the American, Mountain West, CUSA, the MAC and WAC, which already have been forced to fight among themselves for a lone automatic bid to a Host Bowl, beginning in 2014.
The American was a fluid league this season, with five of its nine teams receiving bowl bids. But it would be in its best interest for the conference going forward to have one or two nationally ranked teams that either run the table or have just one loss if it wants to reinforce its new identity and create separation from other leagues in its situation.
"We want to compete at the highest level,'' American commissioner Mike Aresco said. “We know who we are and we know we can compete. That's the goal.''